Trees Along The Lake
The Election Democrats Should Fear the Most 🐘
2030 is the large elephant in the room.
I expect Democrats will pick up a significant number of seats in the 2026 mid-term elections and win the presidency in 2028. Trump has done a lot of damage to economy and society at large, and people will want a change.
The problem is Democrats are facing some rather costly problems that have only unpopular solutions. The social security trust fund becoming depleted in 2032 and the severe deficits the federal government are costly problems with no easy solutions. Simply saying tax the rich, is not going to fill the depth of the hole.
Americans have been living high on the hog, with relatively low taxes for the services they’ve been consuming. Borrowing and in case of social security, built up reserves made it possible for decades for Americans to live with a lot more then they were actually contributing. Not only is the 2032 social security trust fund depletion a serious and costly problem, there is growing evidence that the bond markets can’t forever go on absorbing more and more American debt. Rates are already going up, and are some point, there may be more bonds then actual buyers. And that’s a serious inflection point.
Federal government taxes are going up, and services will be cut. Progressives will try to focus their tax hikes on the wealthy, but that’s easier said then done, as it’s not always easy to distinguish between taxes paid by the wealthy and poor. The economy is deeply interconnected, and a tax on wealthy people may very well tax retirement accounts and investment accounts held by mid-income earners. And even if it doesn’t, the amount of money needed to close the gaps in federal budget is so great, taxes will be broad and hit Americans in one way or another.
Republicans will capitalize on it, especially if they come in a time in government austerity. Nobody wants to pay more taxes to see popular national parks close and federal government workers laid off. Republicans will argue that cuts to the military and homeland security are making us unsafe. And everybody will have a pity party, if their favorite government service is slashed. But austerity is likely to be mandatory before the decade is done, and it’s going to end up falling flatly on the hands of Democrats, even if that’s not the policy they are persuing.
The colors of November are my favorite 🍁🦌🦃
A lot of people think November is the gray and brown month. In many ways it is but also I find that color appeal to be quite beautiful. There is a richness to the color of late autumn before the snow, a natural color produced by the low angles of the sun and the chill of autumn breeze. The tangy smell of the manure on the fields below, dormant for a while but in six or seven months to be green once again.