Notes ๐Ÿ“

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Map: Lester Flow

A much cooler Thursday ๐Ÿ˜ถโ€๐ŸŒซ๏ธ

Clouds and grayness to start out the day with the rain showers mostly trending to the south. Busy day in the office and I was to bed early last night so once I have my blueberry pancakes, coffee, shower, pack a lunch, it will be off to the office on the mountain bike. Leave early to help my mind with paranoia about the bike chain breaking again.

Yesterday was a pretty quiet day, ๐Ÿ›๏ธ made it home without getting rained on or bike problems. Still keeping a careful eye on the chain ๐Ÿ”— and the alignment of the derailuer. Maybe it’s golden now, but I have my doubts. Only two more real busy days in the office then it should quiet down.

Continuing to work behind the scenes on improvements to the blog ๐Ÿง‘โ€๐Ÿ’ป fixing little but long standing bugs, documenting some of the places I’ve been with coordinates, maps, stories and other content, using AI when it’s useful but trying to always proof and put my own stamp on things. โœ…ย  I really like AI as a force multiplier, but yes, garbage in produces garbage out. Nobody thinks a garbage burning barrel is going to smell like a rose unless your burning rose pedals and not plastic. ๐ŸŒน

Haded in my Absentee Ballot ๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ yesterday, at the post office, ๐Ÿ“ฎ I should be good on voting now until October. Work at campaign committee has been busy with scripts and data processing for the primary elections, state work has been busy with the robo dialer ๐Ÿ“ฑ and scheduling everything out. I should call about the truck cap, ๐Ÿ“† it sure would be convienent if it’s ready to have it installed on Tuesday before the work picnic. ๐Ÿงบ And I need time to move money to pay for it.

Thematic Map: Clouds
Terrain Map: Apalachian, New York
Thematic Map: Primary Direction of Hillsides in NYS - Aspect

Hump Day, Still Uncertain About the Bike Chain and Everything Else While Loving Those Drugs ๐Ÿ”—

I continue to bend the derailuer and adjust the setting on the chain, trying to get it perfected but it still slipped off down shifting at the park last night and I am worried it will break again by end of week, even while I’m continuing to eye the quick link which remains solid, and the other alignment of the bike chain trying to get it working perfect.

Maybe I need professional help, ๐Ÿšฒ but for now I’m just eye balling it, trying to use AI and internet research to get things aligned it, but I concede the derailuer hanger is bent and worn, and if the chain breaks again, I am going to order a full derailuer hanger, another quick link and a high quality master link tool but if I go that, it will only be brand name and not from Amazon. ๐Ÿช› Or maybe I just need a happy pill, though no caffeine pills, as I need to sleep and I abuse enough coffee โ˜• between home and work, though with the heat I’ve been drinking more water, as Monday I was pretty dehydrated. ๐Ÿฅ›

I still feel kind of burned from getting banned from Facebook Marketplace and Facebook Live for two months for saying I Love Drugs. ๐Ÿ’Š Those Wally World caffeine pills are good though for long trips when you need to stay away on the road, and don’t want to keep pissing, and can be fun up at camp when you want to smoke dope for fun but don’t want to be so sleepy but instead giggling ๐Ÿคญ and staring at campfire flames. ๐Ÿ”ฅ Generally, I think drugs are should be legal, in most cases they are healthier then things like Cheese Burgers ๐Ÿ” , French Fries ๐ŸŸ and the stuff that’s actually killing Americans at the local grease pit. What’s wrong with a little creativity? ๐ŸŒˆ I have to think most of most harmful things in this world aren’t banned, as politicians mostly want to ban things that pleasurable as it gives them that feeling in their pants. ๐Ÿฉณ

Speaking of voting, ๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ I rode my bike over to the High School ๐Ÿšธ and cast my vote in School and Library Budgets. You know how I feel about public schools in America – maybe my experience a quarter century ago now – isn’t relevant to what is happening today but I still have a lot of distaste for what crap schools are like and how they’re operated as essentially nazi camps, with camera and dictatorships everywhere, while they spend all of their time talking about the Hutu and Tutus and other things that have zero relevance to modern day living. ๐Ÿง‘โ€๐Ÿซ I also decided on John Meany for County Court Judge, and also checked the box for Tom DiNapoli as his legislative ice cream ๐Ÿจ day years ago was good, and he’s just such a likable guy, and I don’t know how you can go wrong. I gave some pause to John Meany – mostly because he’s currently the top ADA in the District Attorney’s office, but he also has a lot of experience in decades before in the Public Defenders office and seems to have some liberal credentials, and he’s seemed better then the suburbanite candidate and the white-collar criminal defense attorney from the Nelson Rockefeller staff-created law firm, Whiteman Osterman and Hannah. I actually worked there back in college as a temporary job. ๐Ÿ“ฎ I will drop my ballot off at the post office this morning as I ride into work. Got groceries last night, ๐Ÿ›’ though I forgot or didn’t have room for carrots, flour, and especially that Apple Cider Vinger I live on these days, so I’ll have to stop tonight or tomorrow on the bike ride home to get more stuff.

Still looks like rain for the Memorial Day Weekend. โ˜” I have my hammock, bug screen, flags, and bungee from other truck so I could camp this weekend, but I didn’t grab flashlights out of the other truck, and it looks likes rain. I haven’t heard about the truck cap, but honestly I haven’t been calling or pushing it. But maybe I should call Andy Ruth today and find out if he has an idea when it will arrive, as it was 5 1/2 weeks ago when I ordered it, but it doesn’t seem that long ago, but summer is fading away quickly. I won’t have it for this weekend, ๐ŸŒง๏ธ but regardless it looks like crap to start to moving equipment into the new cap. I should be pushing harder and be more excited, I mean spent a lot of money on this new rig, but also it seems like I am just digging my way into old ways of doing things, but I still struggle to figure out what is next. ๐Ÿ†•

The heat has just been tiring me out, ๐Ÿ˜ฉ I sleep well but it’s oppressive when I get back to my dirty non-air conditioned apartment, and it’s not even the hottest time of the year. I look at the big SuperDuty and question my choices. If I had gotten a little Toyota truck I could have had a much nicer truck and camper for a lot less money. โ›ฝ And every time you turn on radio or look at internet, all people want to do is talk about the high cost of gasoline. I feel like I’m just trying to build another Big Red, ๐Ÿ›ป do another 14 or 15 years of the same things, all the way up to retirement. I tell myself if gas is too expensive, I can just go to the Finger Lakes rather then Michigan this year, still I don’t know. I’m really pretty tired of yet another summer of the sameness, more floating down the East Canada Creek and Potholers. I feel like I’ve done that for well over a decade now. And I’m tired. But I’m also not quite ready to hang up my hat to the homestead life, ๐Ÿ but I also don’t know how much time I have left to travel until my parents need my help and I end up with a homestead. The rice and beans last night were so ordinary, as was the pancakes with the so-called Wild Maine Blueberries ๐Ÿซ, though it does help when you add two rather one egg ๐Ÿฅš for extra fluff.

Map: Severence Hill Trail
Map: Gilman Lake

What I’m watching – the bond markets ๐Ÿฆ

This week the global bond market is experiencing a severe deepening rout, driving government borrowing costs to multi-year highs. Investors are shifting out of fixed-income assets due to persistent energy-driven inflation fears, heavy corporate debt issuance, and a major leadership transition at the U.S. Federal Reserve.ย 

Soaring Treasury and Sovereign Yieldsย 

Yields, which move inversely to bond prices, have surged significantly across the globe: 

  • The U.S. 30-Year Treasury yieldย has hitย 5.20%, its highest level since 2007 on the eve of the global financial crisis.
  • The U.S. 10-Year Treasury noteย has reachedย 4.68%, a peak last seen in early 2025.
  • Global bond yieldsย are climbing in tandem, with Japan’s 10-year government bond matching levels from the 1990s and the Group of Seven (G7) average 10-year borrowing rate approaching 4%.ย 

Key Drivers of Market Volatility

  • Geopolitical Strains and Oil Shocks: The ongoing conflict involving Iran has caused massive energy market disruptions. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent Brent crude climbing past $105โ€“$109 per barrel. Investors fear this spike will cause long-term, structural inflation.
  • Fed Leadership Transition: High uncertainty surrounds the future path of interest rates following the confirmation ofย Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair, replacing Jerome Powell.
  • Sticky Inflation Prints: U.S. economic data revealed a hotter-than-expected April Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.8% year-over-year. This has forced traders to price in a 50% chance of aย rate hikeย by December, completely reversing previous expectations of rate cuts.
  • Changing Buyer Demographics: The market faces structural strain as price-sensitive hedge funds trading through custody hubs (like the UK, Belgium, and the Cayman Islands) replace historically steady, less price-sensitive foreign central banks.ย 

Impact on Corporate and Credit Markets

  • The AI Debt Avalanche: High-yield and investment-grade corporate bonds are seeing a massive influx of new issuance. Mega-cap “hyper-scalers” are tapping the market heavily to finance expensive artificial intelligence infrastructure, with projected sector issuance soaring up to $250 billion.
  • Resilient Spreads: Despite the bond sell-off, investment-grade credit spreads remain remarkably resilient, narrowing slightly due to strong corporate fundamentals and robust retail fund inflows.
  • Broader Economic Headwinds: Analysts warn that if the 10-year yield breaks past 5%, it risks inducing “demand destruction” that could trigger a global spending crunch, dragging down equities and spiking consumer mortgage rates.ย 
Map: Oakley Corners State Forest
Map: Cat Hollow Lean-to and Campbell Mountain